Nine Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Dec. 13, 2022)

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  1. How Did the Housing Market Get So Unaffordable for So Many? “For years, housing affordability was largely an issue that plagued the working class in urban areas. But in recent years, the problem has spread well beyond the working class and is now firmly entrenched in the middle class. A survey from the Pew Research Center released this year showed a 10-percentage-point increase since 2018 in the share of Americans—now one in two—who see the availability of affordable housing in their area as a serious problem. Plenty of statistics confirm that housing has become less affordable. Rental costs in the inflation index have risen more than 7% this year, nearly double the prepandemic trend.” (The Wall Street Journal)
  2. Prologis Predicts Significant Drop in Warehouse Development “Prologis is predicting that U.S. warehouse development starts will drop to a 7-year low, as rent growth exceeds 10%. Starts are already 30% below their peak in Europe and Prologis expects that to continue in the US. The warehouse property owner says the rapid rise in the cost of capital is the culprit and starts will fall by 60% to less than 175 million square feet in 2023. ‘A pullback of this magnitude would create a shortage of space in 2024,’ according to Prologis’ report. ‘The pipeline will drop from over 500 million square feet in Q3 2022 to 275 by year-end 2023.’” (GlobeSt.com)
  3. There Were no REIT IPOs in 2022 for the First Time Since 2021 “It has been a brutal year for publicly traded commercial real estate owners on Wall Street, so much so that an ignominious milestone was reached for the first time in more than two decades.” (Bisnow)
  4. Blackstone and Starwood Show a Problem with Overseas Investors “The recent surges in withdrawal requests at Starwood and Blackstone, and the decisions by both to limit redemptions, may be signs less of an issue the non-traded REITs faced and more of a deeper problem. Rather than a pair of curiosities, they might represent the surfacing of a previously invisible developing systemic issue. Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman spoke about the situation this week, according to the Financial Times. ‘The idea that there is something going wrong with this product because people are redeeming is conflating completely incorrect assumptions,’ Schwarzman said at an industry conference. ‘This was not meant to be a mutual fund with daily liquidity. These are pieces of real estate.’” (GlobeSt.com)
  5. Bye, 2022. Here’s What to Expect from Investment Sales in 2023. “Before we welcome 2023, let’s look at 2022 and how the New York City investment sales market performed, where we are now, and where we might be headed in the new year. Can you believe that the 10-year Treasury one year ago was 1.48 percent? Doesn’t it seem like that was years ago? I think the thing that 2022 will be most remembered for will be inflation, the unprecedented pace of interest rate increases, and the impact these factors had on the commercial real estate lending markets.” (Commercial Observer)
  6. Here Are the Best Cities for Women in Commercial Real Estate “The share of women in the commercial and residential real estate industries slumped 5% from 2017 to 2021, and women are still making less on average than male counterparts in both sectors. A MyEListing analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that of the 3 million people working in real estate, 48% are women — but despite those high levels, women earn 89.2% of mens’ salaries in the sector on average, an increase of just 0.1% over the last five years.  Over the course of a career, that means women earn on average $313,114 less than men.” (GlobeSt.com)
  7. REIT Veris ‘Welcomes Constructive Dialogue’ with Kushner in Rejection “Veris Residential’s board knocked back another takeover bid from Kushner Cos., saying it wants a higher share price and more insight into the financing sources the company would use for the acquisition. ‘We appreciate your continued interest in the Company, willingness to constructively engage, and revised proposals,’ Veris’ board wrote in a letter to Kushner CEO Charles Kushner Monday, saying the $18.50-per-share offer would continue to undervalue the company.” (Bisnow)
  8. Authorities Discover Real Estate Firm Linked to Jailed MEP “The Greek authority against money-laundering announced on Monday that it has traced a real estate firm based in the central Athens district of Kolonaki to jailed MEP Eva Kaili and her partner. The company, set up one month ago and involved in the trade and exploitation of property, has been frozen and its activities are being investigated. Earlier, the authority announced that it was ordering a freeze of all assets owned by Kaili, her partner and her immediate family in Greece, including all real estate, bank accounts, as well as all financial products, shares in companies and other assets, in the wake of her arrest in Belgium on charges of corruption, money-laundering and participation in a criminal organization.” (ekathimerini.com)
  9. The 10 Biggest New York City Office Leases of 2022 “This year looked like a mixed bag for office leasing. While New York City office leasing speeded toward pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter of the year — leading Reuters to dub it a “gangbuster year” for leasing in the city — it now appears to be limping across the finish line.” (Commercial Observer)

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/cre-wire/nine-must-reads-cre-industry-today-dec-13-2022

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