Eight Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (July 12, 2022)

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  1. Time to Worry That Real Estate Will Crash Like It Did in 2008? “It’s not a matter of ‘if’ but a matter of ‘when’ the housing will lose its luster, and residential real estate prices will decline. In fact, evidence is emerging that the downward trend has already started. ‘In the US, mortgage applications have fallen by 28% from their peak, new home sales are down by 17% and housing starts have dropped by 13%,’ said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics in a new research note.” (The Street)
  2. End of New York City Tax Incentive Imperils Apartment Construction “New York City’s multifamily development faces an unsettled future following the expiration of the main tax incentive for affordable housing, real-estate investors and analysts say. The Affordable New York tax provision, commonly known as 421a, offered a property tax exemption for housing projects in New York City that include a percentage of units earmarked for lower-income renters. Nearly 70% of rental housing built over the past decade used the tax abatement, according to New York University’s Furman Center.” (The Wall Street Journal)
  3. Grocery-Anchored Centers a ‘Bright Spot’ in Gloomy Retail “Cedar Realty Trust is on its way to formally merging with Wheeler Real Estate Trust following the completion of a previously announced sale involving a portfolio of 33 grocery-anchored shopping centers and a redevelopment property. The buyer is a joint venture between a fund managed by DRA Advisors LLC and KPR Centers for total gross proceeds of approximately $879 million, including assumed debt.” (GlobeSt.com)
  4. California Cities Ban New Gas Stations in Battle to Combat Climate Change “Without realizing they were starting a movement in green energy policy, leaders of a small Sonoma Valley city seem to have done just that when they questioned the approval process for a new gas station — eventually halting its development and others in the future. ‘We didn’t know what we were doing, actually,’ said Petaluma Councilwoman D’Lynda Fischer, who led the charge last year to prohibit new gas stations in the city of 60,000. ‘We didn’t know we were the first in the world when we banned gas stations.’” (Los Angeles Times)
  5. The Biggest Problem with Remote Work “Remote work seems fully entrenched in American life. Offices are more than half empty nationwide, while restaurants and movie theaters are packed. Housing prices in suburbs and small towns have surged as white-collar workers take advantage of the demise of the daily commute. But if the work-from-anywhere movement has been successful for veteran employees in defined roles with trusted colleagues, for certain people and for certain objectives,  remote or hybrid work remains a problem to be solved.” (The Atlantic)
  6. New York City Hotels Are Coming Back from the Pandemic “New York City’s hotels took a hard hit from the global pandemic. As tourists gradually return to the city, though, investors are banking on the hotel market being one of the most profitable sectors once again. ‘The Manhattan market has been ramping up faster than everybody anticipated,’ said Mitchell Hochberg, president of Lightstone, which owns Moxy-branded hotels in multiple locations in the city, as well as in Los Angeles and Miami.” (Commercial Observer)
  7. Industrial Sector Holds Steady Amid Amazon Slowdown “Amazon’s fast-paced industrial expansion seems to have come to an end, and the company’s recently canceled development plans and decision to sublease some 10 million square feet of space stand as a testimony to a potential shift in the industrial market. The bulk is located in Southern California, New Jersey, New York and Atlanta—markets that have some of the lowest vacancy rates in the country, the latest CommercialEdge industrial report pointed out.” (Commercial Property Executive)
  8. Jersey City Seeks to Expand Voluntary Inclusionary Housing “Jersey City is poised to expand its inclusionary housing program, but its success hinges on developer buy-in. Later this month the city’s Division of Planning is expected to present a plan that would create affordable housing overlays in areas of the city zoned for residential use. Under the proposals, developers could build more units on their sites if they set aside at least 10 percent or 15 percent of the apartments as affordable.” (The Real Deal)

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/cre-wire/eight-must-reads-cre-industry-today-july-12-2022

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